New Study Shows High Housing Costs Are a Major Reason Behind Falling U.S. Birth Rates

A new study suggests that rising housing costs may be one of the biggest factors behind America’s falling birth rate. While experts have long pointed to cultural shifts and financial strain as reasons why fewer people are having children, this research indicates that housing affordability may play a much larger role than previously understood.

Birth rates are influenced by many elements economic pressures, childcare costs, family preferences, and changing lifestyles. But the study, conducted by Benjamin K. Couillard, a doctoral researcher in economics at the University of Toronto, finds that over half of the fertility decline from the 2000s to the 2010s can be traced to increasing housing costs.

Couillard’s research points to a clear pattern: when rents rise, families are less likely to form, and young adults delay having children.

Experts agree that tackling falling birth rates requires more than one solution. Theodore Cosco from The Oxford Institute of Population Ageing told Newsweek that a meaningful response would involve building stronger support systems such as affordable childcare, paid leave, access to health services, and stable economic conditions.

How Housing Costs Are Affecting Birth Trends

The U.S., like many countries, has seen birth rates drop to historic lows. This trend raises concerns about an aging population, where fewer working-age adults are supporting a larger share of older residents.

The Congressional Budget Office projects the national fertility rate will sit around 1.6 births per woman over the next three decades far below the 2.1 “replacement rate” needed to keep the population stable without immigration.

Couillard’s study shows that rising rents since 1990 have:

• Caused roughly 11% fewer children being born overall
• Contributed to 51% of the fertility rate decline from the 2000s to the 2010s
• Led to 7% fewer young families forming during the same period

He argues that the availability and affordability of family-appropriate housing directly affects whether people feel ready to have children.

High rent pushes people into living situations not suited for raising kids such as sharing homes with relatives or renting smaller spaces. It also increases the financial pressure of having a child, which often leads people to delay parenthood.

The Study’s Approach

To understand the connection between housing and fertility, Couillard combined Census Bureau data with a model that simulates how people make decisions about where to live and whether to start a family.

He then ran “what if” scenarios—such as lowering housing costs or increasing the availability of larger homes—to test how these changes might impact birth rates.

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data shows rents climbed 149% nationwide from 1990 to 2020, far outpacing overall inflation. That steep increase forms a major part of Couillard’s conclusions.

A Declining Birth Rate in a Volatile Housing Market

The U.S. fertility rate was 2.08 in 1990. It dropped to 1.64 in 2020 and hit 1.599, a record low, last year.

Couillard concludes that the housing market must be part of any solution: “If we want housing to be a tool for supporting family growth, we need to build the types of homes families actually need.”

As the U.S. workforce shrinks and more citizens age into retirement, the debate around birth rates is expected to intensify. Most experts say there is no single answer, but economic stability particularly housing affordability plays a major role.

Experts Respond to the Findings

Some economists say the study makes a strong case. Jake Krimmel, Senior Economist at Realtor.com, noted that proving the link between high housing costs and fertility is challenging, but this research provides important quantifiable evidence.

Other scholars, like Harvard professor Margaret Anne McConnell, point out that the drop in birth rates also reflects positive developments such as greater reproductive freedom and more control over family planning.

Bottom Line

The study adds a new layer to the national conversation about declining birth rates. While cultural and economic factors continue to play major roles, housing affordability has now emerged as a central driver. And as rents keep rising and home prices stay high, more young adults are delaying family plans not by choice, but by necessity. For direct financing consultations or mortgage options for you visit 👉 Nadlan Capital Group.