November Inflation Report Arrives After Shutdown: What Markets Should Expect

Investors and economists are closely watching Thursday’s release of the November Consumer Price Index (CPI), which will be the first inflation report published since the U.S. government shutdown ended last month.

The release is important, but it also comes with limitations. Because of the shutdown, the data will be incomplete, adding uncertainty to how markets interpret the results.

What Economists Are Forecasting

According to economists surveyed by Dow Jones, November’s CPI report is expected to show:

• Headline inflation: 3.1% year over year
• Core inflation (excluding food and energy): 3.0% year over year

The last CPI data available was from September, which showed both headline and core inflation running at 3.0%. October’s CPI was never released because the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) was shut down for much of the data collection period.

Why This CPI Report Is Different

The BLS has confirmed that the November report will not include month-over-month price changes where October data is missing. That means the report will lack some of the detail markets typically rely on to track inflation trends.

Because of this, economists warn that the report may not give a full picture of price movement.

“This won’t be a clean inflation report,” said Victoria Fernandez, Chief Market Strategist at Crossmark Global Investments.
She noted that data collection didn’t begin until nearly halfway through November, raising concerns about whether prices behave differently later in the month.

Why the 2% vs. 3% Line Matters

Economists say the most important takeaway will be where inflation lands on an annual basis.

“The difference between inflation starting with a ‘2’ versus a ‘3’ is critical,” said José Torres, Senior Economist at Interactive Brokers.

Torres expects inflation could come in slightly lower than forecasts, possibly around 2.9% for both headline and core CPI. He believes the realistic range could fall between 2.9% and 3.1%.

Potential Market Impact

If inflation prints at 2.9%, Torres said it could support a positive move in stocks and help fuel a year-end rally. He also believes it would strengthen expectations for more interest rate cuts in 2026, beyond the single cut currently projected by the Federal Reserve.

However, not all analysts expect a major reaction.

Fernandez said a 0.1% difference in either direction is unlikely to dramatically change Fed policy or market behavior on its own.

“The Fed would still be in wait-and-see mode,” she said.

Shutdown Still Clouds the Data

President Donald Trump signed a funding bill on November 12, ending the 43-day government shutdown, the longest in U.S. history. Because the shutdown lasted through much of October and early November, several key inflation reports were delayed or canceled.

As a result:

• October CPI was never released
• November CPI data only reflects part of the month
• October and November PCE inflation reports are still unscheduled
• October Producer Price Index (PPI) data will be released alongside November PPI on January 14

This lack of complete data makes it harder for policymakers and investors to confidently assess inflation trends.

Inflation Still a Concern

Despite some signs of slowing, several analysts believe inflation remains stubborn.

Fernandez said mixed economic signals are adding to uncertainty.

“We see weakness in jobs, income, and consumer spending, yet expectations for earnings growth next year remain strong,” she said.
“The pieces don’t fully line up yet.”

She added that more consistent data will be needed before making firm conclusions about where inflation and the economy are headed in the long term.

What Comes Next

While Thursday’s CPI report will provide a partial update on inflation, markets are likely to remain cautious until:

• More complete inflation data is released
• Delayed PCE and PPI reports are published
• The Fed gains clearer insight into both inflation and labor trends

Until then, uncertainty is likely to remain elevated heading into 2026. For direct financing consultations or mortgage options for you visit 👉 Nadlan Capital Group.