Report Flags Top 10 Highest-Risk Housing Markets in the U.S. for Q3 2025

A new housing risk analysis shows that some parts of the U.S. housing market remain under real pressure as 2025 comes to a close. According to the ATTOM Q3 2025 U.S. Housing Risk Report, several counties face elevated risk tied to affordability challenges, unemployment, and foreclosure activity.

The report reviewed county-level housing conditions across the country and found that California dominates the high-risk list, with 16 of the 50 most vulnerable markets located in the state. New Jersey ranked second with nine counties, followed by Florida with four, and Arizona and Texas with three each.

How Housing Risk Is Measured

ATTOM’s analysis looks at several key factors that signal stress in local housing markets, including:

• Home affordability, measured by the share of income needed to buy a home
• Equity levels, including the percentage of underwater mortgages
• Foreclosure activity
• Local unemployment rates

Markets that rank poorly across several of these categories are considered more exposed if economic conditions weaken.

California Leads High-Risk Markets

The report shows that many high-risk counties combine high housing costs with weaker job markets, making ownership harder to sustain. ATTOM identified the following counties as the top five highest-risk housing markets in Q3 2025:

1. Butte County, California
   • 48.6% of income needed to buy
   • 4% of homes underwater
   • 1 in 735 homes with foreclosure filings
   • 6.8% unemployment rate
2. Humboldt County, California
   • 50.2% of income needed to buy
   • 3.1% underwater
   • 1 in 803 homes with foreclosure filings
   • 6.1% unemployment rate
3. Charlotte County, Florida
   • 39.1% of income needed to buy
   • 7% underwater
   • 1 in 499 homes with foreclosure filings
   • 5.1% unemployment rate
4. Shasta County, California
   • 39.4% of income needed to buy
   • 3.6% underwater
   • 1 in 532 homes with foreclosure filings
   • 6% unemployment rate
5. El Dorado County, California
   • 65.8% of income needed to buy
   • 2.6% underwater
   • 1 in 806 homes with foreclosure filings
   • 5.4% unemployment rate

Remaining Markets in the Top 10

The rest of the top 10 shows similar patterns of strained affordability and rising job stress:

6. Atlantic County, New Jersey
   • 45.6% of income needed
   • 6.4% unemployment
7. Cumberland County, New Jersey
   • 31.7% of income needed
   • 8.6% unemployment
8. Solano County, California
   • 52.7% of income needed
   • 5.9% unemployment
9. Madera County, California
   • 49.8% of income needed
   • 8.33% unemployment
10. Tangipahoa Parish, Louisiana

• 30.1% of income needed
• 13.1% of homes underwater
• 5.5% unemployment

Where Housing Risk Is Lowest

On the opposite end of the spectrum, ATTOM found that many of the least-risky housing markets are located in Wisconsin, Tennessee, Montana, New Hampshire, and Virginia. These counties tend to have lower unemployment and far fewer foreclosures, helping to support more stable housing conditions.

What This Means Going Forward

The report shows that housing risk in 2025 is highly uneven. While some markets remain stable, others are stretched thin by high prices, limited income growth, and rising foreclosures. As 2026 begins, these high-risk areas could be more vulnerable if job growth slows or borrowing costs stay elevated, making local conditions worth watching closely. For direct financing consultations or mortgage options for you visit 👉 Nadlan Capital Group.