Existing Home Sales Forecast 2026: Spring Season Shows Early Signs of Improvement

Housing Market Begins to Stabilize

The U.S. housing market is starting to show small but important signs of improvement as the spring homebuying season begins. According to the latest outlook from First American Data & Analytics, existing-home sales are expected to increase slightly in April.

While overall activity remains below long-term averages, the market is slowly gaining momentum. This change suggests that conditions may be improving for both buyers and sellers after a period of limited activity.

Modest Growth in Existing Home Sales

Forecast data indicates that existing-home sales could rise by about 0.1% compared to the previous month. However, sales are still projected to be around 0.9% lower than the same time last year.

This small increase is supported by a stable economy and a reduced impact from the “rate lock-in” effect. Many homeowners who locked in low mortgage rates in the past were reluctant to sell, but that pressure is beginning to ease slightly.

As a result, more homes may enter the market, giving buyers additional options.

Affordability Improves Across the Country

One of the main reasons for this shift is improved housing affordability. The Real House Price Index shows that affordability has increased by about 11% over the past year.

This improvement is notable because it is happening across all major markets. For the first time in several months, affordability has risen year over year in the top 100 housing markets in the U.S.

Affordability is shaped by three key factors:

• Mortgage interest rates
• Home prices
• Household income

When combined, these elements have helped increase buying power for many households. Even small gains in affordability can encourage more people to consider purchasing a home.

How Affordability Impacts Market Activity

There is a connection between affordability and home sales, although it is not always strong. Markets with better affordability often see higher levels of buyer activity, but other factors also play a role.

For example, changes in home prices can influence how quickly buyers return to the market. In some areas, price drops have helped improve affordability and attract more interest from buyers.

However, in other markets, even with better affordability, sales activity has remained slow. This shows that affordability alone does not guarantee a strong increase in demand.

Regional Trends Show Mixed Results

The housing market is not moving at the same pace everywhere. Some regions are seeing stronger improvements than others.

In cities like Sarasota and Cape Coral, affordability has improved by around 16%. In these areas, home prices have dropped, which has helped bring buyers back into the market and increase sales activity.

On the other hand, markets such as Allentown and New Haven have seen only small gains in affordability. In these locations, sales are still lower compared to last year, suggesting that minor improvements may not be enough to drive strong demand.

There are also cases where affordability has improved, but sales remain weak. Cities like Pittsburgh and Las Vegas fall into this category. This may be due to limited housing supply or cautious buyer behavior.

The Role of Home Prices

Changes in home prices continue to play a key role in shaping the market. When price growth slows or declines, affordability improves, making it easier for buyers to enter the market.

In some areas, this has been enough to increase sales quickly. In others, the response has been slower, depending on local conditions such as inventory levels and buyer confidence.

Overall, price trends remain closely linked to both affordability and market activity.

What to Expect in the Coming Months

As the spring homebuying season continues, affordability is expected to remain an important factor driving demand. Buyers who were previously unable to afford homes may now have more opportunities.

However, the pace of recovery will likely vary from one market to another. Factors such as available inventory, local price trends, and overall demand will continue to influence results.

Final Thoughts

The existing home sales forecast for 2026 points to gradual improvement rather than a sharp rebound. The market is still adjusting, but better affordability is starting to support increased activity.

For buyers, this could mean more options and slightly improved purchasing power. For sellers, it may signal a slow return of demand as the market moves into a more balanced phase.

While challenges remain, the early signs from this spring suggest that the housing market is moving in a more stable direction. For direct financing consultations or mortgage options for you visit 👉 Nadlan Capital Group.