Pending Home Sales Hold Steady in September as Buyers Remain Cautious
The housing market showed little movement in September, as pending home sales remained unchanged from August, according to the latest data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). On a year-over-year basis, contract signings were down 0.9%, signaling that despite falling mortgage rates, buyer activity has yet to fully rebound.
“Contract signings matched the second-strongest pace of the year,” said Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at NAR. “However, we’re still short of what would be considered a healthy, balanced market. Even with mortgage rates touching their lowest levels in a year, a softening job market and affordability challenges are keeping some would-be buyers on the sidelines.”
Yun noted that September’s record-high stock market performance and rising homeowner equity weren’t enough to fully offset broader economic uncertainty. “People are seeing their wealth grow on paper, but that doesn’t necessarily translate into confidence about making large purchases,” he said.
Quarterly Nationwide Housing Outlook
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 (Forecast) |
|---|---|---|
| Existing-home sales | +3% | +14% |
| New home sales | 0% | +3% |
| Median home price | +1% | +4% |
| Mortgage rate | 6.7% | 6.0% |
| Job gains | 1.6 million | 2.0 million |
The data suggest that while home sales are expected to edge slightly higher this year, the real recovery may not take hold until 2026, when rates are projected to stabilize closer to 6% and job growth improves.
Market Insights and Expert Commentary
Dr. Lisa Sturtevant, Chief Economist at Bright MLS, said that although lower mortgage rates have provided some relief, most of the recent boost in mortgage activity has come from refinancing rather than new purchases.
“We’re seeing more homeowners refinance to capture lower rates, but fewer buyers are jumping into the market,” Sturtevant said. “Affordability remains a major hurdle, even with rates at their lowest point in a year. Consumers are also increasingly cautious given ongoing economic uncertainty and news of corporate layoffs.”
She added that market performance will likely vary significantly by region during the remainder of the year. “Markets with strong job growth and diversified economies will continue to see modest sales gains, while areas facing furloughs or job cuts may see further slowdowns heading into winter.”
Regional Trends in Existing-Home Sales
Existing-home sales rose 1.5% in September, marking the second consecutive monthly increase. However, growth was uneven across the country:
- Northeast: Sales rose modestly month-over-month and were higher compared to last year, helped by limited inventory and stable local economies.
- South: Continued to see steady gains, supported by population growth and an influx of out-of-state buyers.
- West: Sales activity remained flat year-over-year, reflecting persistent affordability challenges.
- Midwest: Recorded a slight monthly decline, though sales were still higher compared to September 2024.
“As anticipated, falling mortgage rates are lifting home sales and improving housing affordability,” Yun said. “But we still need more inventory to meet pent-up demand particularly for first-time buyers who are struggling to find homes within reach.”
What the Data Mean
The Pending Home Sales Index (PHS) a leading indicator of housing market activity is based on signed contracts for existing single-family homes, condos, and co-ops. Since contracts typically close within one to two months, PHS trends usually precede changes in existing-home sales by a similar margin.
The latest report suggests the market is stabilizing rather than rebounding, as lower borrowing costs are met with cautious optimism and ongoing affordability barriers. Economists say that while the Fed’s recent policy easing has helped rates decline, wage growth and job stability will be key to sustaining stronger housing momentum.
Looking Ahead
The NAR will release the October 2025 Pending Home Sales Report on Tuesday, November 25, 2025, at 10 a.m. Eastern. Analysts expect the data to reflect continued modest activity, though any major shifts in rates or employment figures could influence fourth-quarter performance.
For now, the market remains in a holding pattern not falling, but not fully recovering either. As Yun summarized, “The housing market is showing resilience, but it’s clear that affordability and economic confidence will dictate how quickly it can regain its stride.” For direct financing consultations or mortgage options for you visit 👉 Nadlan Capital Group.
Responses