Treasury Secretary Bessent Predicts 3% GDP Growth and Strong Holiday Spending to Close 2025

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent expects the U.S. economy to end 2025 on solid ground, highlighting strong holiday shopping activity and continued momentum in economic growth. During an interview on CBS News’ Face the Nation, Bessent said recent data suggests the country is heading toward 3% real GDP growth by year-end, even with challenges earlier in the year.

“The economy has been better than we thought,” Bessent said. He noted that the U.S. recorded 4% GDP growth in multiple quarters and added, “We’re going to finish the year, despite the Schumer shutdown, with 3% real GDP growth.”

According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the first quarter of 2025 saw a 0.6% annual decline, but the second quarter rebounded strongly with 3.8% growth. Updated government estimates for the third quarter will be released on December 23. As of December 5, the Atlanta Federal Reserve’s model projects a 3.5% annualized Q3 growth rate, adding more optimism to the economic outlook.

Consumers Feel Less Positive Despite Strong Growth

Even with improving economic numbers, many Americans remain cautious. Consumer spending accounts for nearly 70% of U.S. GDP, yet sentiment surveys continue to show widespread worry.

The University of Michigan’s December consumer sentiment index came in at 53.3, which is slightly higher than November’s reading but still 28% lower than the same time last year. Concerns about inflation, job security, and the cost of everyday essentials remain top of mind for many households.

Recent government data—delayed due to the federal shutdown showed consumer prices were up 3% year-over-year in September, with grocery costs rising 3.1%. These increases continue to weigh on household budgets, especially for middle- and lower-income families.

Political Debate Intensifies Over Affordability Issues

As rising prices remain a central issue, President Donald Trump has dismissed concerns about affordability, calling it a “Democrat scam” during a recent cabinet meeting. He argued that critics are overstating financial pressure on Americans.

Polls, however, show that many voters disagree. A recent NBC News survey reported that two-thirds of registered voters believe the Trump administration has fallen short on managing the economy and cost of living.

When asked about Trump’s remarks, Bessent said the administration inherited inflation challenges from the prior administration and suggested the public’s concerns were influenced heavily by media coverage.

“The American people don’t know how good they have it,” Bessent said. He added that the previous administration’s policies contributed to “scarcity” in areas like energy, which he believes helped fuel the current affordability problems. Looking ahead, he predicted a shift toward “prosperity” next year.

Holiday Season Strength Points to Solid Economic Finish

Despite mixed consumer sentiment, Bessent emphasized that holiday spending has been “very strong”, offering another sign that the economy remains resilient heading into 2026. Retailers have reported increased traffic and steady sales, even as shoppers continue to search for discounts and value.

With economic growth stabilizing, inflation easing from its highs, and job figures holding up better than expected despite recent layoffs, the Treasury Secretary said he expects the economy to continue improving as the year comes to a close. For direct financing consultations or mortgage options for you visit 👉 Nadlan Capital Group.