Homes Changing Hands: U.S. Housing Turnover Hits Its Lowest Level in Three Decades
The U.S. housing market has hit a historic standstill. In 2025, only 28 out of every 1,000 homes roughly 2.8% of the nation’s housing stock changed hands, marking the lowest turnover rate in at least 30 years, according to a new report from Redfin.
The data reveals just how locked-up the American housing market has become. While low inventory and high mortgage rates have been defining features of the post-pandemic era, this year’s figures show an even deeper freeze in housing mobility. Redfin’s analysis, which examined housing activity from 2012 through 2025, found that not even the sluggish years following the Great Recession or the pre-pandemic market slowdown saw turnover this low.
In comparison, last year’s turnover rate stood at 2.78%, only marginally higher than this year’s. Both years represent the weakest housing activity since 1995, when existing-home sales were similarly depressed. During the height of the pandemic buying frenzy in 2021, turnover peaked at 44 out of every 1,000 homes sold—a level that now feels like a distant memory. Even compared to 2019, the final year before the pandemic, this year’s housing turnover is 31% lower.
Why Housing Has Hit a Wall
Several forces have converged to push home turnover to historic lows:
1. Affordability Barriers Remain Steep
Home prices are still near record highs, and even with mortgage rates dipping slightly from their 2024 peaks, borrowing costs remain elevated. For many buyers, the combination of inflated prices, high insurance premiums, and property taxes has pushed ownership out of reach.
2. Rate Lock Is Freezing Sellers in Place
The “golden handcuffs” of low mortgage rates are keeping many homeowners from moving. Over 70% of homeowners currently have mortgages below 5%, well below the current 6.17% average rate. Selling would mean taking on a much higher rate for a new home, something few are willing to do.
3. Economic Uncertainty Is Causing Hesitation
Lingering worries about job security, inflation, and the broader economy have made buyers and sellers alike more cautious. Many are waiting for a clearer signal from the market whether that means lower rates, cooling prices, or greater economic stability.
“America’s housing market is defined right now by caution,” said Chen Zhao, Head of Economic Research at Redfin. “Buyers are walking away from deals more often, sometimes due to affordability issues and sometimes because they’re simply rethinking whether this is the right time to commit. On the other hand, sellers are hesitant to let go of their low rates or accept less-than-ideal offers. With both sides pausing, sales naturally fall to historic lows.”
Housing Turnover by the Numbers
Despite the slump in sales, the share of homes listed for sale ticked up slightly. In the first nine months of 2025, 3.9% of homes were listed for sale, or 39 out of every 1,000 properties. That’s marginally higher than 3.7% last year and above 2023’s record low of 3.5%, though it still marks one of the slowest listing rates since Redfin began tracking this data in 2012.
Even so, listing activity remains well below pre-pandemic levels 24% lower than 2021 and 25% below 2019 underscoring how little inventory is hitting the market.
Home Sales and Listings Per 1,000 Homes (Jan–Sept 2025)
| Property Type | Sales Turnover Rate | New Listings Rate |
|---|---|---|
| Single-Family Homes | 29.9 (+0.6% YoY) | 41.1 (+4.1% YoY) |
| Condos/Townhomes | 22.2 (-3.3% YoY) | 33.1 (+2.3% YoY) |
While single-family homes saw a slight improvement in turnover compared to last year, condo and townhouse sales declined. Redfin’s data shows a 72% imbalance between condo sellers and buyers, suggesting that demand for multifamily units remains soft.
Regional Highlights: Virginia Beach Tops, New York Trails
Among the nation’s 50 largest metro areas, Virginia Beach, Virginia, recorded the highest turnover rate, with 35 out of every 1,000 homes sold in the first nine months of the year a 5.3% increase year-over-year.
Other metro areas with relatively strong turnover included:
| Rank | Metro | Sales per 1,000 Homes | YoY Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Virginia Beach, VA | 35.2 | +5.3% |
| 2 | West Palm Beach, FL | 32.6 | -8.8% |
| 3 | Tampa, FL | 31.2 | -13.7% |
| 4 | Indianapolis, IN | 30.3 | +1.4% |
| 5 | Atlanta, GA | 30.1 | -4.6% |
The Sun Belt once a hotbed of pandemic-era migration has cooled significantly. Areas like Tampa, West Palm Beach, and Orlando are seeing slower turnover as affordability challenges mount and population growth steadies.
On the flip side, San Antonio experienced the steepest decline, with a 26.9% drop in turnover to just 24 sales per 1,000 homes. Other metros facing double-digit declines included Charlotte (-19.9%), Jacksonville (-17.3%), Miami (-16.7%), and Orlando (-16.1%).
Only a handful of metros including San Francisco (+2.6%), Indianapolis (+1.4%), and Virginia Beach (+5.3%) saw year-over-year increases in home turnover.
The Nation’s Coldest Market: New York City
At the opposite end of the spectrum, New York City continues to see the slowest housing turnover in the country, with just 10.3 homes sold per 1,000 during the first nine months of 2025. The city’s sky-high prices, limited inventory, and persistent affordability gap have combined to nearly freeze its housing market.
| Rank | Metro | Sales per 1,000 Homes | YoY Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | New York, NY | 10.3 | -4.0% |
| 2 | Los Angeles, CA | 11.5 | -8.6% |
| 3 | San Francisco, CA | 13.2 | +2.6% |
| 4 | San Jose, CA | 14.8 | -6.2% |
| 5 | Anaheim, CA | 15.5 | -4.9% |
California cities dominate the bottom of the list, in large part due to Proposition 13, a decades-old law that limits property tax increases and incentivizes homeowners to stay put. While this policy has provided stability for long-time owners, it has also contributed to a gridlocked market.
However, analysts note that potential changes to SALT (State and Local Tax) deductions could prompt more movement in coming years by altering the financial calculus for higher-income homeowners.
What Comes Next?
The housing market’s ultra-low turnover rate underscores just how out of balance supply and demand remain. With so many homeowners locked into low rates, and affordability stretched thin for buyers, the gridlock may persist well into 2026 unless there are significant shifts in either interest rates or home prices.
“We may not see a meaningful rebound in turnover until borrowing costs fall more sharply or price growth moderates,” Zhao said. “Until then, expect fewer ‘For Sale’ signs and a slower pace of movement across the country.” For direct financing consultations or mortgage options for you visit 👉 Nadlan Capital Group.
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