Fed Won’t Receive Critical Inflation Data Before December Rate Decision

The Federal Reserve will head into its next interest rate meeting without one of the most important indicators it relies on: the Consumer Price Index. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) confirmed that the October CPI report has been canceled, saying the recent government shutdown made it impossible to gather the necessary information.

The October CPI was originally scheduled for release on Nov. 7. According to the BLS, shutdown-related delays prevented staff from collecting essential survey data through in-person visits, phone interviews, and household surveys methods that cannot be recreated after the fact. Because of this, the agency said retroactive data collection simply wasn’t possible.

The next CPI report, covering November inflation, will now be released on Dec. 18, which is after the Federal Reserve’s upcoming rate decision on Dec. 10. That means policymakers will be making a major call on interest rates without one of their usual inflation checkpoints.

Other Key Inflation Data Also Delayed

The Commerce Department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis also announced that its release of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge will be rescheduled. No new date has been set yet. The PCE reading had been expected on Nov. 26.

With both CPI and PCE delayed, Fed officials are preparing to make policy decisions with a limited view of current price trends.

Fed Officials Express Concern Over Data Fog

Fed Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged the challenge at the press conference following the late-October rate cut. He said the shutdown created a “data fog,” making it harder to evaluate current economic conditions. Powell compared the situation to “driving in the fog,” noting that moving more carefully might be the wiser approach until information is clearer.

However, not all policymakers share the same level of caution.

• New York Fed President John Williams said the central bank likely has “room for a further adjustment soon,” hinting that another cut could still be on the table.
• Fed Governor Christopher Waller took a more confident stance, stating that the Fed still has enough information even with the missing reports to make informed decisions.

Still, the absence of fresh inflation data raises uncertainty at a time when officials are already split over the direction of policy.

Why the Data Matters Now

The Fed’s recent October meeting ended with a quarter-point rate cut, but meeting minutes revealed growing concern among members about evaluating inflation and labor trends without timely data. With price pressures still uneven and the economy adjusting to slower hiring, missing key reports only complicates the path ahead.

Without the October CPI and with the November CPI arriving after the December meeting, the Fed will have to rely on older data, alternative indicators, and market signals to guide its next move. For direct financing consultations or mortgage options for you visit 👉 Nadlan Capital Group.