Fed Won’t Receive Critical Inflation Data Before December Rate Decision
The Federal Reserve is heading into its most important rate meeting of the year without one of the key pieces of data it relies on. The Bureau of Labor Statistics has officially canceled the October Consumer Price Index report, saying the government shutdown prevented them from gathering essential information through in-person visits and phone surveys. Because these data collection methods can’t be recreated after the fact, October inflation numbers are simply lost. That leaves the Fed with a major blind spot heading into its December 10 meeting. The next CPI release, covering November, won’t arrive until December 18—well after policymakers make their decision.
This puts the Fed in an unusual and more uncertain position. At a time when officials are divided over the pace of rate cuts and trying to understand whether inflation is cooling or holding firm, missing data adds even more complexity. The Commerce Department also delayed its release of the PCE price index—the Fed’s preferred inflation measure—with no new date announced. With both CPI and PCE missing, the central bank will have to rely on older data, private-sector surveys, and market indicators to determine whether another rate cut is justified.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell has been open about the challenge, describing the situation as “driving in the fog.” He suggested the Fed may need to move cautiously as it waits for clearer information. But other officials are signaling different views. New York Fed President John Williams hinted that there may be room for another policy adjustment soon, while Fed Governor Christopher Waller said the central bank still has enough information to make an informed call, even without the missing reports.
The stakes are high. The Fed just delivered a quarter-point rate cut in October, but minutes from that meeting show growing uncertainty about the state of inflation and the labor market. Without the October CPI and without updated PCE data, policymakers must make their December decision based largely on September readings and broader economic signals. As the Fed debates whether to slow, pause, or continue cutting rates, the missing inflation data adds a new layer of uncertainty at a pivotal moment for the economy.
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