Jamie Dimon Warns: Recession Still a Real Possibility Despite Trade Truce

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon isn’t ruling out a recession for the U.S. economy just yet and he’s urging caution, even amid some seemingly positive developments on the global trade front.

In a new interview with Bloomberg Television on Thursday, Dimon acknowledged that the recent tariff rollbacks between the U.S. and China are a step in the right direction. But despite the truce, he made it clear: economic uncertainty hasn’t gone away.

“If there’s a recession, I don’t know how big it will be or how long it will last. Hopefully we’ll avoid it, but I wouldn’t take it off the table at this point,” Dimon said.

📉 Recession Odds: Still Elevated, But Slightly Lower

Dimon pointed to insights from JPMorgan’s chief U.S. economist, Michael Feroli, who told clients earlier this week that while the risk of recession is still “elevated,” it’s now below 50%. That’s a slight improvement but it still means there’s nearly a coin flip chance of the economy tipping into a downturn.

And the signs of that risk are already creeping into decision-making.

“Even at this level, you see people holding back on investment and thinking through what they want to do,” Dimon noted, referring to the cautious stance businesses are taking amid ongoing economic uncertainties.

Tariff Pauses Offer Some Relief—But Questions Remain

Dimon’s comments come just days after the U.S. and China agreed to a 90-day tariff rollback, easing trade tensions that have strained global markets for years. The U.S. also paused certain tariffs on imports from other countries for the same period.

That’s undoubtedly good news for global supply chains, investors, and consumers but it doesn’t erase the bigger economic challenges.

“I think the right thing to do is to back off some of that stuff and engage in conversation,” Dimon said, encouraging diplomacy over escalation.

Still, import taxes remain significantly higher than they were a year ago. And according to Dimon, that could continue to drag down consumer spending and business investment both of which are key drivers of economic growth.

A Shift in Tone from Dimon

Dimon’s cautious outlook marks a slight softening compared to his stance just last month, when he said a recession seemed more likely than not. The recent tariff developments have changed the tone but not the underlying risks.

While some analysts and investors might take comfort in the pause on trade tensions, Dimon’s comments serve as a reminder that macro risks still loom.

• Interest rates remain elevated
• Business sentiment is shaky
• Global geopolitical uncertainty continues
• Consumer savings are dwindling post-COVID

In this environment, the mood across the economy is one of guarded optimism but not confidence.

What Should Investors and Business Owners Take From This?

If Jamie Dimon’s comments are any indication, the best approach right now is measured caution.

Here’s what that looks like:

• Stay diversified in your investments
• Hold extra cash reserves if you’re running a business
• Watch how interest rate trends and tariffs evolve
• Don’t assume the market rally means all risks are gone

Dimon’s message is clear: the economy might avoid a full-blown recession but we’re not in the clear yet.