Case-Shiller Report: Home Prices Rise Slowly as Inflation Eats Away Gains

U.S. home price growth remained weak in November, according to the latest reading of the S&P Dow Jones Indices Case-Shiller Home Price Index, pointing to a housing market that continues to cool after years of rapid gains.

The National Home Price Index rose 1.4% year over year, matching October’s pace. While prices are still rising on paper, they are losing ground in real terms. With consumer inflation running at 2.7%, home values effectively declined by about 1.3 percentage points after inflation.

Real Prices Slip as Growth Stalls

The data suggests that national home prices are no longer keeping up with the rising cost of living. Even though nominal prices are higher than a year ago, buyers are not seeing true value growth once inflation is factored in.

This trend reflects a broader slowdown that has been building since mid-2023, as affordability limits, higher borrowing costs, and shifting demand weigh on the market.

Midwest and Northeast Lead, Sun Belt Lags

Price performance continued to vary widely by region.

Midwestern and Northeastern cities posted the strongest gains:

• Chicago: +5.7%
• New York: +5.0%
• Cleveland: +3.4%

These areas continue to benefit from tight housing supply and more stable demand.

In contrast, several Sun Belt markets that surged during the pandemic are now seeing declines:

• Tampa, FL: –3.9%
• Phoenix, AZ: –1.4%
• Dallas, TX: –1.4%
• Miami, FL: –1.0%

These markets are adjusting as inventory rises and buyer demand cools.

Buyers Hitting an Affordability Wall

Housing economists say falling mortgage rates alone may not be enough to restart strong price growth.

Lisa Sturtevant, chief economist at Bright MLS, noted that while mortgage rates began easing in October and have since fallen to multi-year lows, buyers remain constrained.

In normal conditions, lower rates would boost purchasing power and push prices higher. This time, many buyers are already stretched, leading to slower price growth and more negotiation especially in markets with rising supply.

Monthly Data Shows Ongoing Softness

On a month-to-month basis, price movement remained weak:

• 15 of the 20 major metro areas saw prices decline from October on a non-seasonally adjusted basis.
• After seasonal adjustment, the National Index rose just 0.4%, signaling limited momentum.

This confirms that the market is moving sideways rather than accelerating.

Index Breakdown

For November:

• National Index: +1.4% year over year
• 10-City Composite: +2.0%
• 20-City Composite: +1.4%

Chicago posted the strongest annual gain among the 20 tracked cities, while Tampa recorded the steepest decline.

Data Notes and Outlook

S&P Dow Jones Indices reported continued transaction delays in Wayne County, Michigan, preventing a valid November update for the Detroit index. October data remains available, and missing months will be updated as records are finalized.

Overall, the November Case-Shiller data confirms the housing market has entered a period of slow, uneven growth. Prices are rising modestly in some regions, falling in others, and losing value when adjusted for inflation.

For buyers, this means more leverage in parts of the Sun Belt and continued competition in supply-constrained Midwest and Northeast markets. For sellers, it signals that pricing power is fading and realism matters more than momentum in early 2026. For direct financing consultations or mortgage options for you visit 👉 Nadlan Capital Group.