Case Shiller Report Home Prices Rise Slowly as Inflation Eats Away Gains
U.S. home price growth remained weak in November, reinforcing signs that the housing market is cooling after several years of rapid appreciation.
According to the latest S&P Dow Jones Indices Case-Shiller Home Price Index, national home prices rose 1.4% year over year, matching October’s pace. While prices are still technically higher than a year ago, they are no longer keeping up with inflation. With consumer prices rising at about 2.7%, home values effectively fell by roughly 1.3% in real terms.
That shift matters. It means homeowners are no longer gaining purchasing power from rising prices, and buyers are not facing the same upward pressure that defined much of the past decade.
The slowdown has been building since mid-2023, driven by affordability limits, higher borrowing costs, and more selective buyer demand. Lower mortgage rates alone have not been enough to restart strong price growth.
Regional differences remain pronounced. Midwestern and Northeastern cities continue to lead, supported by tight housing supply and steadier demand. Chicago posted a 5.7% annual gain, New York rose 5.0%, and Cleveland increased 3.4%.
Meanwhile, several Sun Belt markets that surged during the pandemic are now seeing prices move lower. Tampa fell nearly 4% year over year, while Phoenix, Dallas, and Miami also posted declines. These markets are adjusting as inventory grows and buyers gain leverage.
Monthly data points to continued softness. On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, prices declined in 15 of the 20 major metro areas tracked by the index. Even after seasonal adjustment, national prices rose just 0.4%, signaling a market that is drifting sideways rather than accelerating.
Economists note that while mortgage rates have eased in recent months, many buyers are already stretched by high prices and other living costs. That has led to slower price growth, more negotiation, and fewer bidding wars—especially in markets where supply is improving.
Overall, the November Case-Shiller data confirms a housing market in transition. Price gains are modest, uneven, and losing ground to inflation. For buyers, that means more opportunity in parts of the Sun Belt. For sellers, it means pricing realistically matters more than ever as 2026 unfolds.
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