Ongoing Affordability Improvements: What the Trend Means for Homebuyers

The latest data from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) indicates that homebuyer affordability is showing steady improvement across the U.S., thanks to declining mortgage rates and rising incomes. The Purchase Applications Payment Index (PAPI), which measures the ratio of mortgage payments to income for purchase applicants, shows that the national median payment fell to $2,100 in August, down from $2,127 in July. This marks the fourth consecutive month of improved affordability.

“Lower mortgage rates combined with stronger income growth have boosted the purchasing power of prospective buyers,” said Edward Seiler, MBA’s Associate VP for Housing Economics. “We anticipate that continued moderation in home-price appreciation, paired with near-term rate relief, will further ease affordability constraints and support more activity in the housing market.”

Understanding PAPI and What It Measures

The PAPI index tracks monthly mortgage payments relative to income. A rising PAPI signals declining affordability, driven by larger loan amounts, higher rates, or slower income growth. Conversely, a declining PAPI indicates improving affordability, reflecting smaller loan amounts, lower rates, or rising earnings.

In August, the national PAPI fell 1.2% to 157.5, compared to 159.4 in July. Year-over-year, affordability improved by 1.1%, as median earnings increased 3.2%, outpacing the 2.1% rise in mortgage payments. For borrowers seeking lower-payment mortgages (the 25th percentile), the median payment fell from $1,468 in July to $1,445 in August, demonstrating gains for entry-level buyers.

The Builders’ Purchase Application Payment Index (BPAPI), which tracks purchase mortgage applications from builders, also showed improvement. Median payments fell from $2,233 in July to $2,210 in August, reflecting the broader trend of easing affordability pressures.

Key Takeaways

• National median mortgage payment: $2,100 in August 2025, down $27 from July; up 2.1% YoY
• FHA loan median payment: $1,863 in August, slightly lower than July but up from $1,817 in August 2024
• Conventional loan median payment: $2,112, down from $2,160 in July but up from $2,056 in August 2024
• States with highest PAPI: Idaho (256.5), Nevada (241.9), Arizona (214.0), Rhode Island (208.3), Utah (205.0)
• States with lowest PAPI: Alaska (115.1), Louisiana (115.3), D.C. (117.2), Connecticut (121.7), New York (123.6)
• Affordability improvements by race:
  • Black households: PAPI fell from 158.9 to 156.9
  • Hispanic households: PAPI fell from 148.5 to 146.6
  • White households: PAPI fell from 160.5 to 158.5

Factors Driving Affordability

Mortgage rates began declining in early August, with the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) dropping from 6.72% to 6.56% by month-end, reaching a 10-month low. As September closes, the rate averaged 6.30%. For comparison, rates were 6.08% a year ago at the same time.

The Federal Reserve’s recent rate cut, lowering the federal funds target range to 4%–4.25%, marked the first easing in 2025 after five consecutive meetings at 4.25%–4.50%. While this initially caused a slight uptick in mortgage rates due to market adjustments, rates remain near their lowest levels in nearly a year, benefiting both buyers and homeowners considering refinancing.

“Even with this week’s minor uptick in rates, affordability remains significantly better than last year,” said Hannah Jones, Senior Economic Research Analyst at Realtor.com. “For buyers, especially first-time buyers in high-cost metros, the current environment can make the difference between qualifying for a home and being priced out. Lower payments combined with slowly rising inventory create a window of opportunity that savvy buyers can leverage.”

Implications for Homebuyers

The affordability trend suggests that more Americans may enter the housing market in the coming months, particularly as seasonal factors traditionally favor fall purchases. Buyers now have greater purchasing power, enabling them to compete in markets that were previously out of reach.

Additionally, the combination of moderate home-price appreciation, lower interest rates, and rising incomes may encourage homeowners who had previously been “locked in” by ultra-low pandemic-era rates to list their properties, increasing inventory and giving buyers more options.

Ultimately, the MBA data highlights a slight but meaningful shift in the housing market, suggesting that affordability constraints, while still present, are easing and could help boost homebuying activity before year-end. For direct financing consultations or mortgage options for you visit 👉 Nadlan Capital Group.